It’s Not Russia, nor China
The crisis in the USA is the greatest risk for Europe right now. Upgrading to more cooperation with the EU and NATO would be very advisable.
We are currently living in one global political caesura comparable to the end of the Cold War 30 years ago.
We had three peaceful, beautiful decades in Western Europe and we will have to adjust to the fact that really difficult times are dawning. Forces can return that have long been part of everyday world politics and in many parts of the world never have Gone were: Nationalism and the law of the strongest. Both are a great threat to international balance and peace, they put international law and global cooperation under pressure. The previous peace order that emerged after the Second World War still holds but there is now a kind of competition; we will have to actively defend the previous world order if we want to keep them. And it seems we haven’t yet understood what’s at stake for us: Democracy, Rule of Law Freedom, Peace, and the Ideals of Enlightenment.
And that could go wrong even very quickly, you can see that live in the USA.
The democracy crisis in the USA is currently the greatest threat to our security if the most powerful and oldest democracy in the world doesn’t manage to tame its enemies in its own country, we in Europe also have a problem, because the USA is the guarantor of the current peace order. Donald Trump has hijacked the Republican Party, which is now heading towards autocracy, unfortunately, it has to be said with this harshness. If they, in their current state, win back the White House in 2024, which is quite possible given the looming economic crisis, there is a high risk that the international front will collapse against Russia and other autocrats.
The likelihood that the USA will then withdraw from NATO is high, which would be catastrophic for the security situation in Europe. And within the USA there will be even more pressure on democracy and the rule of law.
The Republicans are big fans of the autocratic Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
We, here in Europe, should be preparing for this scenario. We feared already in 2014 after the occupation of Crimea, that it would not end there. Putin’s worldview is very nationalistic and revisionist, from his point of view the national community of Russia extends beyond its borders therefore it has to be shifted. He sees himself as the new Zar with the mission to restore the empire to its former glory.
This war will probably go on for a long time, both sides have to want to end it, and that is not foreseeable for the time being. It has been going on since 2014, it’s just gotten worse, possibly this will result in a frozen conflict as in Georgia and South Ossetia. There will be a truce but no mutual recognition of the new borders. Only that would now also be progressing.
We are heading for a new Cold War. And just because the Russians are having military difficulties in Ukraine does not mean that the threat to Europe has been averted. We have no choice but to defend ourselves with weapons if necessary. The alternative can be seen at the moment in Russia.
On the one hand, the past 30 years have been so idyllic for many that they can’t even imagine how bad it could get. On the other hand, not everyone has benefited. The social and economic inequality has grown and fears of insecurity and frustration have increased, especially in the working class in the West. they are the losers of the past decades.
The populists intelligently address this insecurity and promise simple solutions which of course don’t work, but with issues of culture war and xenophobia, they would have become politically relevant factors.
How do we win against the autocrats?? By ensuring that life in our part of the world is more attractive than in the authoritarian states. Then we will also remain a livable model for the people there. That is the way to win this struggle – in the long term with Soft Power, not by force of Weapons!
(These are not my own comments, but I do agree)
Your Blogging friend Ulrich Koepf
